Maine
Biden is projected to receive between 35% and 65%.Trump is projected to receive between 26% and 56%.
2020
Updated March 29th, 2020.
Who will win the presidency?
Current snapshot
Biden is projected to win between 220 - 381 electoral college votes. Trump is projected to win between 152 - 313 electoral college votes. In 25000 simulations of the presidential election from the perspective of March 29th, 2020, Biden wins 75% and Trump wins 24%.
Over time
Who will win each state?
Overview
Note that uncertainties at this time are due to a) close races and/or b) few polls. As more polls become available and election day nears, error bars should shrink and the range of reasonable potential outcomes should narrow.
Alabama
Biden is projected to receive between 20% and 53%.Trump is projected to receive between 41% and 74%.
Alaska
Biden is projected to receive between 9% and 60%.Trump is projected to receive between 21% and 73%.
Arizona
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 57%.Trump is projected to receive between 35% and 55%.
Arkansas
Biden is projected to receive between 6% and 55%.Trump is projected to receive between 29% and 80%.
California
Biden is projected to receive between 49% and 68%.Trump is projected to receive between 23% and 41%.
Colorado
Biden is projected to receive between 25% and 62%.Trump is projected to receive between 23% and 60%.
Connecticut
Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 66%.Trump is projected to receive between 22% and 49%.
Delaware
Biden is projected to receive between 32% and 74%.Trump is projected to receive between 15% and 57%.
District of Columbia
Biden is projected to receive between 54% and 94%.Trump is projected to receive between 1% and 30%.
Florida
Biden is projected to receive between 38% and 59%.Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 57%.
Georgia
Biden is projected to receive between 30% and 56%.Trump is projected to receive between 39% and 64%.
Hawaii
Biden is projected to receive between 29% and 81%.Trump is projected to receive between 5% and 53%.
Idaho
Biden is projected to receive between 4% and 52%.Trump is projected to receive between 28% and 80%.
Illinois
Biden is projected to receive between 24% and 76%.Trump is projected to receive between 9% and 61%.
Indiana
Biden is projected to receive between 9% and 59%.Trump is projected to receive between 25% and 77%.
Iowa
Biden is projected to receive between 32% and 56%.Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 62%.
Kansas
Biden is projected to receive between 28% and 53%.Trump is projected to receive between 40% and 65%.
Kentucky
Biden is projected to receive between 6% and 54%.Trump is projected to receive between 30% and 81%.
Louisiana
Biden is projected to receive between 9% and 60%.Trump is projected to receive between 26% and 77%.
Maryland
Biden is projected to receive between 44% and 77%.Trump is projected to receive between 16% and 49%.
Massachusetts
Biden is projected to receive between 29% and 80%.Trump is projected to receive between 7% and 55%.
Michigan
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 57%.Trump is projected to receive between 33% and 53%.
Minnesota
Biden is projected to receive between 22% and 66%.Trump is projected to receive between 21% and 65%.
Mississippi
Biden is projected to receive between 22% and 55%.Trump is projected to receive between 39% and 73%.
Missouri
Biden is projected to receive between 26% and 53%.Trump is projected to receive between 38% and 65%.
Montana
Biden is projected to receive between 14% and 49%.Trump is projected to receive between 35% and 72%.
Nebraska
Biden is projected to receive between 7% and 56%.Trump is projected to receive between 28% and 80%.
Nevada
Biden is projected to receive between 33% and 59%.Trump is projected to receive between 28% and 54%.
New Hampshire
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 61%.Trump is projected to receive between 32% and 56%.
New Jersey
Biden is projected to receive between 38% and 68%.Trump is projected to receive between 20% and 49%.
New Mexico
Biden is projected to receive between 28% and 66%.Trump is projected to receive between 25% and 62%.
New York
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 71%.Trump is projected to receive between 17% and 51%.
North Carolina
Biden is projected to receive between 38% and 59%.Trump is projected to receive between 35% and 56%.
North Dakota
Biden is projected to receive between 20% and 50%.Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 75%.
Ohio
Biden is projected to receive between 36% and 58%.Trump is projected to receive between 35% and 57%.
Oklahoma
Biden is projected to receive between 17% and 46%.Trump is projected to receive between 44% and 74%.
Oregon
Biden is projected to receive between 21% and 73%.Trump is projected to receive between 11% and 63%.
Pennsylvania
Biden is projected to receive between 36% and 57%.Trump is projected to receive between 34% and 55%.
Rhode Island
Biden is projected to receive between 23% and 75%.Trump is projected to receive between 11% and 61%.
South Carolina
Biden is projected to receive between 28% and 53%.Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 62%.
South Dakota
Biden is projected to receive between 6% and 54%.Trump is projected to receive between 30% and 82%.
Tennessee
Biden is projected to receive between 17% and 54%.Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 75%.
Texas
Biden is projected to receive between 35% and 54%.Trump is projected to receive between 37% and 57%.
Utah
Biden is projected to receive between 18% and 45%.Trump is projected to receive between 33% and 61%.
Vermont
Biden is projected to receive between 25% and 78%.Trump is projected to receive between 5% and 54%.
Virginia
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 63%.Trump is projected to receive between 28% and 53%.
Washington
Biden is projected to receive between 39% and 68%.Trump is projected to receive between 21% and 50%.
West Virginia
Biden is projected to receive between 9% and 48%.Trump is projected to receive between 41% and 82%.
Wisconsin
Biden is projected to receive between 37% and 57%.Trump is projected to receive between 35% and 55%.
Wyoming
Biden is projected to receive between 2% and 46%.Trump is projected to receive between 36% and 85%.
